Heavy Money

You may not be involved in Forex trading directly, but the fact remains that you are affected by what occurs in foreign exchange trading every day.

Here are some examples of how this constant flow of currency trading makes an impact on your daily life. Perhaps the most obvious impact is that currency trading makes an impact on the price you pay for goods and services.

Should you happen to live in a country where the comparative value of your currency falls in comparison to that of other countries, you could find yourself paying a higher price for items that you are used to purchasing at a relatively inexpensive rate.

The reason is that the rate of exchange for imported goods would have changed and chances are the brunt of that change will be passed on to you, the consumer.

These goods may include anything from petroleum products to underwear.

Another way that changes in trading currency impact you is the simple ability to obtain goods and services.

A severe enough change in the rate of exchange could mean that it is no longer viable for certain types of business commerce to continue.

The result will be that you may find that some items that you are used to purchasing regularly will at first become much scarcer and carry a higher price tag, but ultimately no longer be available to you at all. This will require you to change your spending habits and settle for other goods that you may consider being of lesser quality.

An extreme example would be if you were no longer able to get the imported car parts you need for your vehicle and had to turn to either generic replacements or used parts.

Your investments may also be impacted as well.

While the stock exchange is a totally different process from currency exchange, the fact of the matter is that they do impact one another.

Adverse changes in the rate of exchange can mean your stocks may slow down their process of earning money for you, especially if the stocks happen to be investments in retail companies or any entity that relies heavily on foreign trade.

Changes in your portfolio of course make a difference to your overall financial health, and may especially hurt if your stock portfolio happens to also be your form of retirement plan. Many people do not give the trading of currency a second thought.

Nevertheless, this process that is in a constant flow every day does reach out and touch the lives of each of us in some way.

We may find ourselves paying higher prices for goods or services that we are used to enjoying. In some cases, we may have to substitute for a lesser product, due to lack of availability.

We may see our overall financial health impacted, even to the point of wondering about our future and retirement.

Keeping up with Forex trading is a good idea for all of us. It should be noted Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

When it comes to trading on the Forex market, winning is a matter of the mind rather than mind over matter.

Any trader who’s been in the game for any length of time will tell you that psychology has a lot to do with both your own performance on the trading floor and with the way that the market is moving. Playing a winning hand depends on knowing your own mind – and understanding the way that psychology moves the market.

Studying the psychology of the market is nothing new. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that any arena that rides and falls on decisions made by people is going to be heavily influenced by the minds of people.

Few people take into account all the various levels of mind games that motivate the market, though. If you keep your eye on the way that psychology influences others – including the mass psychology of the people that use the currency on a daily basis – but neglect to know what moves you, you’re going to end up hurting your own position. The best Forex coaches will tell you that before you can really become a successful trader, you have to know yourself and the triggers that influence you.

Knowing those will help you overcome them or use them.

Are you saying ‘Huh?” about now?

Believe me, I understand. I felt the same way the first time that someone tried to explain how the mind games we play with ourselves influence the trades and decisions that we make. Let me break it down into more manageable pieces for you.

Anything involving winning or losing large sums of money becomes emotionally charged. All right.

You’ve heard that playing the market is a mathematical game. Plug in the right numbers, make the right calculations and you’ll come out ahead.

So why is it that so many traders end up on the losing end of the market? After all, everyone has access to the same numbers, the same data, the same info – if it’s math, there’s only one right answer, right? The answer lies in interpretation. The numbers don’t lie, but your mind does. Your hopes and fears can make you see things that just aren’t there.

When you invest in a currency, you’re investing more than just money – you make an emotional investment. Being ‘right’ becomes important. Being ‘wrong’ doesn’t just cost you money when you let yourself be ruled by your emotions – it costs you pride. Why else would you let a loser ride in the hope that it will bounce back? It’s that little thing inside your head that says, “I KNOW I’m right on this, dammit!” Bottom line:

You can’t keep emotions out of the picture, but you can learn not to let them control your decisions. To most people, being right is more important than making money. Here’s the deal. The way to make real money in the forex market is to cut your losses short and let your winners ride. In order to do that, you have GOT to accept that some of your trades are going to lose, cut them loose and move on to another trade.

You’ve got to accept that picking a loser is NOT an indication of your self-worth, it’s not a reflection on who you are. It’s simply a loss, and the best way to deal with it is to stop losing money by moving on – and really move on.

Moving on means you don’t keep a running total of how many losses you’ve had – that’s the way to paralyze yourself. This brings us to the next point: Losing traders see loss as failure.

Winning traders see loss as learning.

Not too long ago, my twelve year old son told me that before Thomas Edison invented a working light bulb, he invented 100 light bulbs that didn’t work. But he didn’t give up – because he knew that creating a source of light from electricity was possible.

He believed in his overall theory – so when one design didn’t work, he simply knew that he’d eliminated one possibility. Keep eliminating possibilities long enough, and you’ll eventually find the possibility that works. Winning traders see loss in the same way.

They haven’t failed – they’ve learned something new about the way that they and the market work. Winning traders can look at the big picture while playing in the small arena. Suppose I told you that last year, I made 75 trades that lost money, and 25 that made money.

In the eyes of most people, that would make me a pretty poor trader. I’m wrong 75% of the time. But what if I told you that my average loss was $1000, but my average profit on a winning trade was $10,000? That means that I lost $75,000 on trades – but I made $250,000, making my overall profit $175,000.

It’s a pretty clear numbers game – but how do you keep on trading when you’re losing in trade after trade? Simple – just remember that one trade does not make or break a trader. Focus on the trade at hand, follow the triggers that you’ve set up – but define yourself by what really matters – the overall record.

One of the best known and least understood theories of technical analysis in forex trading is the Elliot Wave Theory.

Developed in the 1920s by Ralph Nelson Elliot as a method of predicting trends in the stock market, the Elliot Wave theory applies fractal mathematics to movements in the market to make predictions based on crowd behavior.

In its essence, the Elliot Wave theory states that the market – in this case, the forex market – moves in a series of 5 swings upward and 3 swings back down, repeated perpetually. But if it were that simple, everyone would be making a killing by catching the wave and riding it until just before it crashes on the shore. Obviously, there’s a lot more to it.

One of the things that makes riding the Elliot Wave so tricky is timing – of all the major wave theories, it’s the only one that doesn’t put a time limit on the reactions and rebounds of the market.

A single In fact, the theories of fractal mathematics makes it clear that there are multiple waves within waves within waves. Interpreting the data and finding the right curves and crests is a tricky process, which gives rise to the contention that you can put 20 experts on the Elliot Wave theory in one room and they will never reach an agreement on which way a stock – or in this case, a currency – is headed. Elliot Wave Basics

• Every action is followed by a reaction. It’s a standard rule of physics that applies to the crowd behavior on which the Elliot Wave theory is based. If prices drop, people will buy. When people buy, the demand increases and supply decreases driving prices back up.

Nearly every system that uses trend analysis to predict the movements of the currency market is based on determining when those actions will cause reactions that make a trade profitable.

• There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a "5-3" move). The Elliot Wave theory is that market activity can be predicted as a series of five waves that move in one direction (the trend) followed by three ‘corrective’ waves that move the market back toward its starting point.

• A 5-3 move completes a cycle. And here’s where the theory begins to get truly complex. Like the mirror reflecting a mirror that reflects a mirror that reflects a mirror, the each 5-3 wave is not only complete in itself, it is a superset of a smaller series of waves, and a subset of a larger set of 5-3 waves – the next principle.

• This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave. In Elliot Wave notation, the 5 waves that fit the trend are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 (impulses). The three correcting waves are called a, b and c (corrections). Each of these waves is made up of a 5-3 series of waves, and each of those is made up of a 5-3 series of waves.

The 5-3 cycle that you’re studying is an impulse and correction in the next ascending 5-3 series.

• The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary. A 5-3 wave may take decades to complete – or it may be over in minutes. Traders who are successful in using the Elliot Wavy theory to trade in the currency market say that the trick is timing trades to coincide with the beginning and end of impulse 3 to minimize your risk and maximize your profit.

Because the timing of each sequence of waves varies so much, using the Elliot Wave theory is very much a matter of interpretation. Identifying the best time to enter and leave a trade is dependent on being able to see and follow the pattern of larger and smaller waves, and to know when to trade and when to get out based on the patterns you identify.

The key is in interpreting the pattern correctly – in finding the right starting point.

Once you learn to see the wave patterns and identify them correctly, say those who are experts, you’ll see how they apply in every facet of forex trading, and will be able to use those patterns to trigger your decisions whether you’re day trading or in it for the long haul.